For XFINE clients, gold remains one of the key instruments for the second half of Q2 2026. After reaching a January record above $5,300 per ounce, the market moved into a broad correction, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken. By mid-May, XAU/USD had declined to the $4,450-4,700 area, reacting to rising Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar, and inflation pressure caused by expensive oil. Reuters noted on May 15 that US 10-year yields had moved close to their annual highs, while the dollar had strengthened. As a result, gold temporarily lost part of its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
The main conflict in the forecast for the second half of Q2 is between short-term pressure from high interest rates and medium-term demand for safe-haven assets. In the coming weeks, the market will mainly react to Treasury yields, the US dollar, and expectations about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Because of this, gold may remain volatile in the $4,400-4,900 range. However, the broader forecast for the whole of 2026 remains clearly stronger than current prices. In a Reuters survey dated April 27, the median forecast of 31 analysts and traders was $4,916 per ounce. This was the highest level in the history of these surveys since 2012. In the same survey, StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that a decline in geopolitical tensions could support a short-term relief rally, but the $5,500 area had previously looked too expensive and could again become a zone where investors take profits.
Bank forecasts also remain well above current prices. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects gold to move toward $5,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026 and sees $6,000 as possible in a longer-term scenario. J.P. Morgan Private Bank had earlier raised its target to $6,000-6,300, linking this outlook to diversification away from the dollar, geopolitical risks, and protection against inflation surprises. UBS kept its target at $6,200 for the coming months, while its base-case scenario for the end of the year was around $5,900. A recent market review by TradingView, citing Finance Magnates, also mentioned State Street’s $4,750-5,500 range with a 50% probability. Wells Fargo and UBP were among the more optimistic forecasters, with expectations around $6,000-6,300.
For XFINE, the base-case scenario for the rest of Q2 is consolidation in XAU/USD within the $4,400-4,900 range, with attempts to return above $4,850 if yields decline and the dollar weakens. If US inflation data for May and June confirm persistent price pressure, the Federal Reserve may keep a strict policy tone, and gold may test $4,350 and $4,200-4,250 again. But if the oil shock starts to ease, Brent stabilizes, and expectations of Fed rate cuts return, buyers may get a reason to push gold toward $5,000 already in the second half of the quarter.
The technical picture supports this scenario. The nearest support levels are located around $4,400 and $4,350. This area is the key boundary for the medium-term bullish scenario. A break and consolidation below $4,350 would weaken the structure and open the way toward $4,100-4,000. Resistance levels are seen at $4,750-4,850, then at $4,900 and the psychological level of $5,000. DailyForex noted on May 8 that, if yields decline, gold may move toward $4,900. LiteFinance, in its wave model, named $4,493 as the critical level and pointed to a possible upside target of $5,610-6,000 if the price remains above it.
Until the end of 2026, the base-case forecast is a recovery toward $5,000-5,300. The optimistic scenario is $5,600-6,000, while the stress scenario for gold bulls is a return to $4,000-4,300 if the dollar strengthens and expectations of higher rates return. The conclusion for XFINE is that gold remains in a strategic bullish market. However, in the coming weeks, its direction will be shaped not only by geopolitics and central bank purchases, but mainly by US real interest rates, oil prices, and the behavior of the US dollar.
Based on current data and forecasts from Reuters, J.P. Morgan, UBS, TradingView/Finance Magnates, DailyForex, LiteFinance, and Investing.com.
