The second quarter of 2026 is being shaped by three factors: geopolitics in the Middle East, expectations for Fed and ECB interest rates, and high volatility in commodities. Reuters notes that the dollar remains dependent on the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, while the EUR/USD consensus points to levels around 1.18 in three months and 1.19 in six months. For Fed rates, expectations have shifted toward a longer pause because of inflation risks from expensive energy.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair remains near the 1.17 area and keeps a medium-term sideways structure. The base range for Q2 is 1.1450-1.2050. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1850-1.1900. If the pair breaks above this area, the next target may be 1.2000-1.2050. A higher move toward 1.2150-1.2200 is possible only if the dollar clearly weakens and expectations for the Fed become softer. Support is located at 1.1600-1.1650, followed by 1.1450-1.1500. Stronger demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset may return the pair to the lower part of the range. Scenario: neutral with a moderate upward bias above 1.1600.
🟠 Bitcoin BTC/USD
Bitcoin is holding above the key 73,000-75,000 area, but quarterly risks remain wide because of its dependence on liquidity, ETF flows, and risk appetite. The base range for Q2 is 65,000-98,000. Resistance is located at 85,000-88,000. If BTC breaks above this area, a test of 92,000-98,000 is possible, and with strong capital inflows, the 100,000-105,000 area may come into focus. Support is located at 78,000-80,000, followed by 73,000-75,000 and 65,000-68,000. Standard Chartered previously allowed for a decline in BTC toward 50,000 before a recovery, while Bernstein kept a more aggressive target of 150,000 for the end of 2026. Scenario: neutral-to-bullish while the price remains above 73,000-75,000.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent remains the main source of macroeconomic volatility. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent to peak in Q2 near 115 dollars per barrel, while Barclays pointed to a quarterly level of 110 dollars, with a risk of stronger growth if the conflict continues. The base range for Q2 is 90-125 dollars. Support is located at 98-100, followed by 92-95 and 88-90. Resistance is located at 110-115, followed by 120-125. If de-escalation is confirmed, Brent may move toward 90-95. A new supply disruption or risks around the Strait of Hormuz may return the price to 120-125 and higher. Scenario: neutral-to-volatile, with the key area at 110-115.
🥇 Gold XAU/USD
Gold remains supported by geopolitics, rate expectations, and central bank demand. J.P.Morgan forecasts gold rising to 6,300 dollars per ounce by the end of 2026, UBS sees potential for a move toward 5,900, while some market estimates suggest upside above 5,000 if the Fed becomes more dovish. The base range for Q2 is 4,300-5,200 dollars. Support is located at 4,550-4,600, followed by 4,400-4,450 and 4,300-4,350. Resistance is located at 4,800-4,900, followed by 5,000-5,050 and 5,150-5,200. A stronger dollar and higher real yields may return gold to 4,400-4,500. Scenario: neutral-to-bullish above 4,550-4,600.
📈 Base Scenarios for Q2
EUR/USD: neutral above 1.1600, range 1.1450-1.2050. BTC/USD: neutral-to-bullish above 73,000-75,000, range 65,000-98,000. Brent: neutral-to-volatile, range 90-125. XAU/USD: neutral-to-bullish above 4,550-4,600, range 4,300-5,200.
The main logic for the quarter: de-escalation would support an oil correction and reduce safe-haven demand for the dollar; a new round of tension would strengthen Brent, the dollar, and gold, but may limit EUR/USD and BTC.
