The crypto market in the second half of April 2026 is showing mixed dynamics, increasingly interpreted as a transition phase between the continuation of a bullish cycle and a local cooling period. Bitcoin is holding near key levels after the rally in early April, while Ethereum is showing more restrained performance amid capital reallocation. Analysts at XFINE note that the market is becoming less driven by retail demand and more dependent on institutional flows and global liquidity.
One of the key factors remains the influence of ETFs (exchange-traded funds). According to Bloomberg, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US remain positive in April, although slower compared to March peaks. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart подчеркнул that “institutional demand remains strong, but the market is entering a phase of more selective allocations.” This is confirmed by a CoinShares report, which shows weekly inflows in the range of $300-600 million, below the extreme levels seen earlier this year but still indicating structural demand.
At the same time, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and the stock market is increasing. According to Nasdaq Research, the correlation coefficient between Nasdaq Composite and Bitcoin remains at 0.45-0.6 in April, significantly higher than in previous cycles. This suggests that the crypto market is increasingly reacting to macroeconomic signals, including expectations for Federal Reserve rates and US dollar liquidity trends. XFINE analysts believe this makes the current cycle more “macro-sensitive” than previous ones.
Major financial institutions are also offering cautiously optimistic forecasts. Goldman Sachs notes that “the cycle is not over, but the phase of rapid growth is being replaced by consolidation,” and expects new highs within 6-12 months if monetary policy eases. JPMorgan, on the other hand, warns about overheating in certain segments and sees a potential correction of 15-25% if liquidity conditions worsen. Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in an April interview with CNBC that “digital assets are becoming part of the global financial infrastructure, although short-term volatility remains.”
Among well-known investors, opinions are divided. Michael Saylor maintains a strongly bullish stance, saying in a Bloomberg interview that Bitcoin “is still in the early stages of institutional adoption.” At the same time, Ray Dalio noted in the Financial Times that crypto assets “depend on global liquidity no less than technology stocks,” and may face pressure if financial conditions tighten.
Ethereum appears less resilient in the short term. According to Glassnode, rising exchange supply and declining DeFi activity are putting pressure on the price, despite positive long-term expectations linked to ecosystem development. XFINE analysts emphasize that ETH is often perceived as an “infrastructure asset,” and may lag behind Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty.
Overall, the market is showing signs of maturity. While previous cycles were largely driven by retail capital, institutional strategies, ETF flows, and macro factors now play a dominant role. Morgan Stanley notes that future crypto performance will depend on the balance between liquidity inflows and interest rate expectations.
Thus, the current phase is better described not as the end of the cycle, but as a slowdown. XFINE expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the 70,000-82,000 range in the coming months, while Ethereum may trade within 2,000-2,800, forming a base for the next move. At the same time, investors should consider that strong correlation with the Nasdaq Composite and dependence on macro conditions make crypto assets more vulnerable to external shocks. Additional pressure may come from geopolitical risks, including the situation in the Middle East and volatility in energy markets.
In the medium term, structural factors remain positive. Growing institutional participation, ETF development, and integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system continue to support the market. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood noted in an April comment to Reuters that if institutional inflows continue at the current pace, the long-term potential of the market remains “significantly underestimated.” However, as XFINE points out, the path to new highs is likely to be less straightforward than in previous cycles and will include periods of increased volatility and local corrections.
