The past week was driven by macroeconomic data from the US and the Eurozone. Preliminary PMI data released on March 24 showed moderate slowing of business activity in Europe and relatively stronger performance in the US, which supported the dollar. Initial jobless claims on March 26 remained broadly stable, showing no signs of sharp labor market weakening. The key event was the US PCE inflation report: the data came in close to forecasts, confirming that inflation pressure persists. As a result, the market strengthened expectations of a prolonged period of high Fed rates, supporting the dollar and limiting gains in risk assets.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1510 after declining from highs near 1.1640. The market failed to hold above the 1.1600-1.1620 zone and returned to the 1.1510-1.1530 support area. A breakdown below this range may open the way to 1.1450 and further to 1.1390-1.1415. In case of a move back above 1.1600, the next targets will be 1.1700 and 1.1765-1.1830. As long as the price remains near 1.1510, the baseline scenario stays neutral.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed Friday at 66,025. After failing to hold above 70,000, the market moved lower, with a weekly low at 65,485. The nearest resistance is at 68,800-70,000. Only a move above this zone would allow a return to 71,500-72,000 and further to 73,400-74,000 and 76,000. Support is located at 65,500-65,600, followed by 63,000-64,000 and 59,785-60,000. While the price remains below 70,000, the scenario stays neutral with downside risks.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent closed the week at 106.25 per barrel. After dropping to 92.80, the market recovered, but the 107.40-110.00 zone has not yet been regained. A breakout above it may open the way to 112.00 and further to 119.00. Support is located at 100.00, followed by 97.00-98.00 and 92.80. While the price holds above 100.00, the market keeps chances for stabilization, although volatility remains high. Additional support comes from the geopolitical premium and supply disruption risks, limiting deeper correction. At the same time, failure to hold above 110.00 indicates that the market is not yet ready for a sustained uptrend and remains in a wide range.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold has finished trading at nearly the same level for the second week in a row – 4,495 dollars per ounce. As expected, strong support in the 4,200-4,250 zone held, despite a temporary drop to 4,100, which can be seen as a short-term price spike. The market partially recovered but failed to move above the 4,600-4,650 resistance zone, indicating limited buying strength and no reversal signal. The next resistance levels are at 4,730, 4,850 and 5,000. Support levels are located at 4,400-4,440, followed by 4,200-4,250 and 4,100. As long as prices remain below 4,650, the scenario stays neutral-to-bearish. Additional pressure comes from expectations of prolonged high Fed rates, while holding above 4,400 does not yet confirm a strong bearish momentum.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios
Next week, market focus will again shift to macroeconomic data. On March 31, Eurozone CPI will be released. On April 01, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP report are due. On April 02, jobless claims will be published. On April 03, the key US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, wages) will be released. These data may adjust Fed rate expectations and drive the dollar.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral near 1.1510-1.1530. BTC/USD – neutral with downside risk below 65,500. Brent – neutral-volatile above 100.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 4,650.
