In 2025, the currency market showed a noticeable redistribution of interest among retail traders, and data from major trading platforms indicates that participant behaviour became more diversified. According to observations by XFINE analysts, despite the continued dominance of classic instruments in the forex market, the structure of demand shifted towards more volatile and “narrative-driven” assets sensitive to interest rates, commodities, and geopolitics.
If we look at the actual distribution of volumes, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) review and aggregated broker data, the EUR/USD pair accounted for around 22-24% of all retail trades in 2025. USD/JPY ranked second with a share of about 13-15%, GBP/USD accounted for 9-11%, and USD/CHF for around 5%. Together, these four instruments still generated more than 50% of activity. However, it was in 2025 that the share of cross pairs and commodity currencies increased significantly, reaching 25-30% in certain segments of the retail market.
From a volatility perspective, the key indicator remains the average daily range (ATR). For EUR/USD in 2025, it fluctuated within 70-90 points, reflecting the relatively calm nature of the pair’s movement. For GBP/USD, the figure was higher, at around 100-130 points, while for USD/JPY it stood at 90-120 points, with the range expanding to 150 points and above during periods of intervention expectations. It was precisely the growth of directional movements in USD/JPY that made it one of the most attractive pairs for trend-following strategies.
Commodity currencies deserve special attention. AUD/USD in 2025 showed an ATR at the level of 80-110 points, while USD/CAD ranged between 70-100 points, with both pairs demonstrating a strong correlation with macro factors. According to Reuters, “commodity currencies have once again become a key channel for transmitting global risk sentiment”, which ensured increased interest from active traders. As a result, these instruments often delivered cleaner movements after news releases, directly affecting the overall profitability of strategies.
If we analyse profitability, the best results in 2025 were not shown by the most popular pairs, but by the most trending ones. USD/JPY stood out due to stable medium-term movements driven by the yield differential between the US and Japan. Average trend impulses for this pair reached 300-600 points, significantly exceeding similar figures for EUR/USD, where movements were more often limited to ranges of 150-300 points. This confirms the conclusion regularly emphasised at XFINE: profitability is determined not by the popularity of an instrument, but by the structure of its movement.
Cross pairs, particularly GBP/JPY, showed even higher returns, but with significantly greater risk. The average daily range here reached 150-220 points, and exceeded 250 points during periods of heightened volatility. Such parameters make the instrument attractive for experienced traders, but extremely difficult for mass use. At the same time, EUR/JPY became a kind of compromise, offering trend characteristics with less randomness, with an ATR at the level of 100-140 points.
It is worth noting that a number of instruments remained undervalued. NZD/USD, for example, with an average range of 70-100 points, demonstrated high sensitivity to global risk appetite and produced fairly clear signals. EUR/GBP, with volatility of around 40-60 points, on the contrary, provided opportunities for more stable systematic strategies, especially in conditions of stable monetary policy.
An important factor in 2025 was the strengthening influence of macroeconomics. As Bloomberg notes, “the currency market is increasingly reacting not to local data, but to global capital flows and geopolitical events”. This led to the fact that even traditionally “quiet” pairs began to show more pronounced movements during periods of news-driven volatility.
Thus, the structure of the forex market in 2025 confirmed a key trend of recent years – a shift of interest from the most liquid instruments to those that deliver more pronounced movements. While EUR/USD maintained its leadership in terms of volume, the main profits were increasingly generated in cross pairs and commodity currencies. For traders, this means the need for diversification and a deeper analysis of market factors. This approach, as noted at XFINE, is becoming decisive in an increasingly complex global financial environment and is likely to remain relevant in 2026.
