Since late February 2026, bitcoin has been showing a cautious upward movement. However, this is more of a recovery than a full-fledged upward trend. Over the past few weeks, the price has struggled to return to the 70,000-75,000 range, effectively where it stood in early February. Therefore, it is still too early to speak about the formation of a new sustainable growth impulse. Against this backdrop, analysts at XFINE note that the market is in a phase of reassessing expectations, and further movement will depend not on short-term hype, but on the balance between institutional demand and global liquidity.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase estimate bitcoin’s fair value in the 70,000-85,000 range under their base-case scenario for 2026, noting that current levels are close to equilibrium given current bond yields and inflation. At the same time, in a stress scenario, the bank allows for a decline to 60,000 if US Federal Reserve monetary policy remains tighter for longer than expected.
Goldman Sachs follows a similar logic but allows for a wider range. In its February report, the bank states that during 2026 bitcoin may trade within a corridor of 65,000-100,000, with the upper boundary achievable in case of a weaker dollar and inflows into risk assets. Otherwise, according to the bank, the market may remain stuck around 70,000-80,000 without a clear trend.
The world’s largest asset management company, BlackRock, in its March commentary does not provide a precise target, but points to a scenario of gradual growth towards 100,000-120,000, provided that ETF inflows remain stable. At the same time, BlackRock emphasises that institutional demand is becoming the key driver, characterised by a slower but more stable nature compared to previous retail-driven cycles.
Among investors, the most aggressive forecasts continue to come from Cathie Wood of ARK Invest. In a Bloomberg interview in March 2026, she reaffirmed a long-term target above 500,000 by 2030. However, for the coming year, her team considers the 80,000-150,000 range realistic, provided that institutional accumulation continues. A more conservative ARK scenario assumes price stabilisation within 70,000-90,000 in the absence of new catalysts.
The corporate sector also plays an important role in shaping expectations. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor stated in February-March 2026 that bitcoin has the potential to move above 150,000 in the medium term, linking this to constrained supply following the halving and continued accumulation by public companies. At the same time, he acknowledges that in the short term the market may remain within the 60,000-90,000 range.
Analysts at XFINE note that the current market structure differs significantly from previous cycles. The share of long-term holders remains high, while the volume of liquid supply is limited, creating conditions for sharp movements when new capital enters the market. However, inflows remain moderate for now, leading to prolonged consolidation near current levels.
An important factor remains US Federal Reserve policy. If current interest rates are maintained, pressure on risk assets may limit growth, keeping bitcoin within the 65,000-80,000 range. If policy easing begins in the second half of the year, a move towards 100,000 and higher becomes possible, which aligns with the estimates of most major market participants.
By mid-2026, according to XFINE, the key question will be the sustainability of institutional flows. If ETFs continue to attract capital, the market may gradually shift towards the 90,000-110,000 range. If interest weakens, sideways dynamics with periodic pullbacks to 60,000-70,000 are likely to persist.
Thus, the consensus outlook for 2026 can be described as moderately positive, but without expectations of explosive growth. Most banks and asset managers agree that bitcoin will trade within a wide range of 65,000-120,000, where upward movement will depend on macroeconomic conditions and institutional capital inflows.
However, as XFINE analysts point out, there are also more negative scenarios. Strategists at Standard Chartered, in their March report, allow for a decline in bitcoin to the 50,000-60,000 range in the event of deteriorating global liquidity and ETF outflows, while their counterparts at Morgan Stanley do not rule out even deeper drawdowns amid regulatory pressure – down to 45,000-50,000. But this is nothing compared to the forecasts of investor and Euro Pacific Capital head Peter Schiff, who continues to describe bitcoin as a financial bubble, allows for a drop to around 20,000, and in the longer term even warns of a complete collapse of the leading cryptocurrency.
