2025 became a turning point for the crypto market, as the novelty effect from the launch and development of exchange-traded funds on bitcoin and ethereum finally faded. ETFs stopped being a source of hype and turned into an infrastructure element embedded in market mechanics. For XFINE analysts, this clearly confirmed that the market had entered a phase of institutional maturity, where price dynamics are increasingly determined not by the news background, but by liquidity flows, macroeconomic expectations, and the strategies of large participants.
By the end of 2025, total assets under management in cryptocurrency ETFs approached around USD 150 billion, showing growth of approximately 28% over the year. The bulk of this capital was concentrated in products focused on bitcoin, while funds based on ethereum developed more moderately, reflecting differences in risk perception and liquidity between the two assets. Another important point stands out: capital inflows continued even during price corrections, indicating a change in investor motivation. ETFs were increasingly used not as short-term speculative instruments, but as elements of long-term risk allocation within diversified portfolios, where not only returns matter, but also the resilience of the instrument across different market regimes.
This shift was also visible in bitcoin’s behaviour throughout 2025, as its price dynamics remained wave-like and far from a linear trajectory. The market repeatedly moved from phases of elevated volatility to corrections and recoveries, reflecting changes in monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in global risk appetite. In the second half of November and December, bitcoin entered a consolidation phase, where the key drivers were the macroeconomic environment, interest rate dynamics, and liquidity inflows, rather than individual news events. Reactions to loud headlines became shorter, and a return to range-bound trading occurred faster than in previous years, when momentum could persist for much longer.
At the same time, the role of internal capital flows strengthened. Annual transaction volumes in stablecoins reached trillion-dollar levels, making liquidity one of the main factors shaping prices and increasing the importance of settlement infrastructure. Unlike earlier cycles, however, bitcoin in 2025 largely lost stable synchronisation with equity indices even during periods of market stress, and its movement was increasingly formed autonomously, reflecting the balance of supply and demand within the crypto ecosystem. According to XFINE analysts, this became the key distinguishing feature of the year: news stopped acting as an independent trend driver and turned into a catalyst that only amplifies or weakens movements already defined by liquidity.
Altcoins appeared noticeably less resilient in this environment. They received almost no direct support from ETFs and remained dependent on spot liquidity and trader activity, which led to pronounced market fragmentation. Some projects recovered on the back of local drivers, while others continued to face pressure even when bitcoin showed relatively stable dynamics. Differences in order-book depth, availability of derivatives, and the level of market-maker participation intensified the contrast between liquid assets and the rest of the market, while “mass” moves became less frequent than during the period dominated by broad optimism.
Forecasts from the largest financial institutions for 2026 largely confirm this transformation. Goldman Sachs note that bitcoin is increasingly perceived as an alternative investment asset within diversified portfolios, and that its dynamics will depend more on global liquidity and central bank policy than on industry-specific news. At BlackRock, CEO Larry Fink has emphasised that institutional demand via ETFs forms a longer-term ownership model, which over time may reduce the amplitude of market fluctuations. At JPMorgan, strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that in 2026 the market may move into a more balanced phase, where growth will be constrained by the macroeconomic backdrop and competition from traditional assets. A more constructive scenario is allowed for at Standard Chartered, where head of crypto research Geoff Kendrick believes that institutional demand and ETF development can support the market, although price movement is likely to be step-by-step and accompanied by prolonged phases of consolidation.
In this environment, access to high-quality infrastructure and professional tools becomes a key competitive advantage. According to XFINE observations, the market increasingly rewards a systematic approach to liquidity and risk management rather than reactions to noise, where not only entries and exits matter, but also the ability to work within ranges, control leverage, and account for volatility regimes. For XFINE, this leads to a simple conclusion: the crypto market is finally leaving the phase of emotional growth and entering the mode of a mature financial segment, where resilience and discipline become more important than speed and hype.
