Following its 9-10 December meeting, the US Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate for the third time since the start of 2025, lowering it by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75% per annum, fully in line with market expectations. Commenting on the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the Federal Reserve is in a good position to wait and assess how the economy evolves after the latest move. Markets interpreted this statement as a signal of a possible pause in further policy easing until new macroeconomic data become available.
💶 EUR/USD
Despite the prospect of a pause, traders continue to price in rate cuts of 50 bp or more in 2026. These expectations are weighing on the US dollar and pushing the EUR/USD pair higher. As a result, the pair ended the trading week near 1.1740, compared with 1.1642 a week earlier. In the near term, further upside is possible with a test of the resistance area near 1.1820. The next bullish target lies in the 1.1880-1.1910 zone, and a confident breakout above this range could open the way toward 1.2000-1.2040. At the same time, a corrective pullback from the 1.1820 resistance level cannot be ruled out, with a potential decline toward the 1.1680 support area. A deeper correction could push the pair down to 1.1620, followed by 1.1580.
₿ BTC/USD
Bitcoin showed virtually no reaction to the Fed’s decision and ended Friday, 12 December, in a consolidation zone around 90,198. Making confident forecasts for BTC remains difficult. The cryptocurrency continues to be weighed down by a general decline in risk appetite. At the same time, further downside is being limited by the weakness of the US dollar, although concerns about an approaching “crypto winter” persist. However, according to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and a well-known critic of bitcoin, a collapse of BTC to zero is unlikely, as major players, funds and large investors who have committed substantial capital to the asset would not allow such an outcome. This alone may offer some reassurance to holders of digital “gold.” Initial support is located in the 88,000-89,000 area, followed by 84,000-86,000 and 80,000. On the upside, the nearest strong resistance lies at 93,300-95,000, while a more convincing bullish reversal signal would emerge on a sustained move above the 99,000-105,000 zone.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude oil is ending the trading week near 61.0 dollars per barrel. This level may act as a base for a rebound, similar to the move seen at the end of November, when prices initially rose toward the 63.20-63.80 area before falling back to 60.60. The next strong support is the October low at 60.00, followed by the March-April lows in the 58.00-59.00 range. A decisive breakout above 64.00 would strengthen bullish momentum, with potential upside toward 65.00-66.00.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold can be considered the main beneficiary of the latest Fed decision. Unlike digital “gold,” the physical metal easily broke above the 4,250 resistance level, reached a high of 4,453, and finished the week at around 4,301 dollars per ounce. Only a small move remains before XAU/USD can update its all-time high at 4,381, after which the psychologically important 5,000 level would come into focus. However, a move toward 4,500 appears more realistic before the end of the year. In the event of a correction, the main support lies at 4,250, followed by 4,200. A breakdown below this area would open the way toward 4,160-4,170, and then 4,000-4,030.
📈 Conclusion
The upcoming week will be shaped by the aftermath of the Fed’s decision, the release of key macroeconomic data, and meetings of major central banks – including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on 18 December, as well as the Bank of Japan on 19 December. Market participants will also focus on US retail sales and industrial production, PMI data for the US and the euro area, and inflation figures from the UK and Japan.
The baseline outlook for EUR/USD, BTC/USD and Brent remains neutral, with a moderately bullish bias. For XAU/USD, the scenario remains bullish, favouring buying on pullbacks toward the 4,160 and 4,200 support levels.
