The past week was relatively calm, with markets frozen in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting on 9-10 December. Prices across most observed assets saw minimal movement, with EUR/USD being the only notable exception. Investors still do not rule out a 0.25% rate cut at this meeting, though many believe this step in easing could be pushed into early 2026. However, there is virtually no doubt that the rate will be lowered, and this keeps the US dollar under moderate pressure.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair finished Friday at 1.1642, meaning the dollar lost 45 points to the euro over the week. As a result, EUR/USD managed to break above the upper boundary of the downward channel seen in the second half of November, though it still remains within the strong resistance area of 1.1620-1.1655. Investors are reluctant to open either long or short positions, preferring to wait for signals from the Federal Reserve. Additional guidance may also be derived from subsequent statements by the regulator’s leadership. Immediate supports lie at 1.1580 and 1.1530-1.1550. A break below these levels will open the way towards 1.1480-1.1500 and then the 1.1380-1.1400 zone. The first resistance level is located at 1.1680, followed by 1.1720-1.1730. A breakout above these levels under a dovish Fed tone would signal the resumption of a bullish trend and pave the way for a rise towards 1.2000-1.2200.
🟠 BTC/USD
Bitcoin remains in a stabilisation phase after a major collapse that shaved more than 35% off its value. The leading cryptocurrency closed on Friday, 05 December, at 89,196. It is currently being supported by the weakening US dollar. On the other hand, the market continues to face pressure from forced liquidations and a generally reduced appetite for risk. The outlook for BTC is extremely uncertain: crypto enthusiasts are predicting a return to 140,000 and even 200,000, while sceptics are warning of another crypto winter. Initial support is located at 86,000-88,000, followed by 75,000-80,000. A break below this region will open the way to the consolidation corridor seen in spring-autumn 2024 at 53,000-75,000. On the upside, strong resistance lies at 93,300-95,000, and a more convincing reversal signal will appear if the price can confidently break above 99,000-105,000.
🛢 Brent
Oil continues consolidating, finishing near a key support/resistance area at 63.60 dollars per barrel (versus 63.20 a week earlier). Such price stability reflects a balance of forces: expectations that OPEC+ will maintain strict output control support the market, while concerns about rising production outside the cartel and weak demand continue to cap further growth. Buying interest strengthens notably around 61.00-62.00. The next support level at 58.00-59.00 corresponds to the lows recorded in March-April of this year. Selling pressure increases significantly near 64.00-66.00, followed by resistance at 67.5-68.5.
🏆 XAU/USD
Gold remains one of the most attractive assets heading into year end. This is supported by expectations of further policy easing by the Fed and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. In our previous review, we noted that after a correction, gold has been rising since 10 October, moving along an upward-sloping support line and reaching a strong resistance zone at 4,200-4,250 dollars per ounce. Despite all efforts, bulls failed to break through this area over the past week, and XAU/USD finished at 4,198. The pair now stands directly at the upward-sloping support level, from which a rebound towards 4,230-4,260 is possible. A breakout would open the way to 4,320-4,350 and confirm the renewal of the bullish rally. Nearest support stands at 4,160-4,170, followed by 4,000-4,030. If the Fed’s tone turns sufficiently hawkish and strengthens the dollar, a drop towards 3,885-3,900 and lower cannot be ruled out.
📊 Conclusion
The week of 08-12 December will be driven by the Fed meeting on 09-10 December and the subsequent press conference by its leadership. Markets will also pay attention to US inflation data and activity reports from the Eurozone and China.
The baseline scenario for EUR/USD is neutral with a slight upside bias. BTC/USD and Brent are neutral with a modestly bearish tilt. For XAU/USD, the base case is buying on dips while gold remains above 3,950-4,000.
