Markets enter the first month of winter amid mixed sentiment – investors are preparing for the final Fed meeting scheduled for 10 December. The end of quantitative tightening and expectations of further rate cuts continue to pressure the US dollar, support demand for precious metals and help maintain relative stability in risk assets despite uneven global data. In the US, inflation indicators, including PCE, continued to slow, while in Germany the harmonised CPI, on the contrary, accelerated to 2.6% y/y. Additional reports, including the Ifo update and the Beige Book, also showed a mixed picture – business activity in the US remains stable, while in Europe improvement remains selective.
💶 EUR/USD
Softer US Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed easing supported the pair’s rise, allowing it to climb towards 1.1600 after starting the week near 1.1500. However, it still failed to break the upper boundary of the downward channel of the second half of November. The euro’s movement remains restrained, as euro area data point only to gradual improvement without a stable impulse in industry and business sentiment indicators. The nearest support is located at 1.1540-1.1550. A break below will open the way towards 1.1480-1.1500 and then to the 1.1380-1.1400 area. The first strong resistance is at 1.1620-1.1655, followed by 1.1720-1.1730. A breakout of these levels would allow the market to speak of a renewed uptrend towards 1.2000-1.2200, although this is highly unlikely before the Fed meeting.
💹 BTC/USD
Bitcoin, benefiting from dollar weakness, is attempting to recover after a catastrophic collapse when it fell from 126,000 to 80,000 in just six weeks, losing more than 35%. The Friday high on 28 November was recorded at 93,124. However, the market still faces pressure from forced liquidations and a general decline in risk appetite. The first support is located in the 86,000-88,000 zone, the next one at 75,000-80,000; a breakdown of this zone will open the way towards the consolidation range of spring-autumn 2024 – 53,000-75,000. On the upside, the nearest strong resistance is at 93,300–95,000, and only a consistent rise above 99,000-105,000 would restore hopes for the end of the correction and the resumption of the bullish trend.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude continues to consolidate, finishing near 63.20 dollars per barrel. The market remains pressured by expectations of higher non-OPEC supply and uncertainty ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Geopolitical risks and low inventories occasionally provide support, but do not change the overall price picture. The 63.00-63.50 zone is a key support/resistance area. Active buying starts in the 61.00-61.50 region. The next support zone at 58.00-59.00 corresponds to the lows of March-April this year. Sellers appear actively near 64.00-66.00, which represents the nearest resistance. The following zone is 67.5-68.5, where previous breakdown levels and medium-term moving averages converge.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold remains the most attractive asset of recent weeks. Expectations of further Fed monetary easing and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. Leaning on rising diagonal support, gold has been steadily climbing since 10 October and has now reached the strong resistance area of 4,200-4,250 dollars per ounce. The nearest support is at 4,150, followed by 4,000-4,030. If the dollar strengthens, a decline to 3,885-3,900 cannot be ruled out. A confident rise above 4,250 would confirm the resumption of the bullish rally.
📈 Conclusion
The first week of December will be driven by US labour market statistics: the ADP report will be released on 4 December, initial jobless claims on 5 December, and key NFP indicators, unemployment rate and wage dynamics on 6 December.
EUR/USD is likely to remain supported on pullbacks unless US data shift expectations for further easing. The baseline scenario for bitcoin is neutral with a bearish bias. Any rise remains corrective until bulls secure a foothold above 100,000. For gold, the bias is towards buying on dips as long as XAU/USD holds above roughly 3,900 dollars. For Brent, the baseline scenario is neutral with a moderately bearish bias. Market dynamics will depend on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on 30 November. Without more significant production cuts or a clear improvement in demand, upside potential will likely remain limited.
