Financial markets ended October without any sharp changes. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% was received calmly by investors. Prices of both safe-haven and risk assets moved only slightly. The most notable market reaction after the Federal Reserve’s meeting on October 29 and the ECB’s meeting on October 30 was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro, as Jerome Powell’s comments turned out to be less dovish than expected. The ECB, in contrast, made it clear that rates would remain unchanged until spring, widening the gap between the monetary outlooks of the two regulators.
💶 EUR/USD
Owing to the interest-rate differential – 4.00% for the dollar versus 2.15% for the euro – the U.S. currency received some support. After moving about 130 points during the week, EUR/USD closed at 1.1536. Thus, the continuation of this year’s uptrend is now in doubt. Since June, despite all the bulls’ efforts, the pair has repeatedly returned to the support area near 1.1550. In the coming week, a correction upward to 1.1655 is possible, followed by a new cycle of decline toward 1.1400. A drop below 1.1365 will strengthen the bearish outlook. A return to a bullish trend will be confirmed only after a confident breakout above the resistance zones of 1.1795-1.1810 and 1.1900.
₿ BTC/USD
On the first day of November, bitcoin is trading near 110,000. For the fourth consecutive week, the leading cryptocurrency has been pressing against the lower boundary of a three-year ascending channel, awaiting new growth drivers. So far, none have emerged – amid rising bond yields, uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next moves, and overall instability in global markets, investors in October favoured safer assets such as gold. In the coming week, BTC/USD may test support near 103,500. A breakout below this level will open the way to the psychologically important 98,000-100,000 zone and further toward 92,200. A rebound from the lower boundary of the channel (103,500) could return the pair to its mid-channel range at 116,000-117,000 and possibly to 120,000 and 125,000.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude closed the week at around $64.53 per barrel. As we predicted several weeks ago, the 64.80-65.00 area has become the key battlefield between bulls and bears. The market currently faces an oversupply of oil due to increased production in the U.S. and OPEC+, which keeps prices under pressure. Technical indicators also point to a downward trend. However, the pattern of higher lows since April and lower highs on the chart suggests further consolidation within this zone. In the coming week, bears are likely to attempt a break below 63.30 support. If successful, prices could move to $62.00 with a target near $60.00. If support holds, a recovery toward 65.70-66.00 is possible, with upside potential to 68.20-68.75.
🥇 XAU/USD
Our forecast for a correction in gold after reaching a new all-time high proved 100% accurate. As expected, after surging to $4,380 per ounce, the price corrected and ended the past week at $4,001. Another short-term correction toward $3,900 is possible, followed by a rebound and growth to the 4,150-4,165 zone. A breakout above this area would confirm renewed bullish momentum. A fall below $3,625 would cancel the bullish scenario and open the way to $3,250-3,430. Analysts note that in November, gold retains upward potential thanks to expectations of further Fed rate cuts and rising investor demand for safe-haven assets. The bulls’ target for November is to update the all-time high, while the year-end target is the $5,000 mark.
📈 Conclusion
The first week of November is likely to be driven by macroeconomic events. Early in the week, sideways trading is expected, with volatility rising toward Thursday and Friday. On 6 November, the Bank of England will hold its policy meeting, with the probability of a 25-bp rate cut from the current 4.00% estimated at roughly 50/50. On 7 November, the U.S. will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will show whether the labour-market slowdown continues. In addition, investors will be watching the release of preliminary eurozone inflation data and U.S. crude-oil inventory reports, both of which could influence the euro and Brent dynamics.
