By the end of last week, volatility had slightly decreased, with most assets finishing the five-day period around key support and resistance zones. Market sentiment remains cautious, suggesting that investors are still awaiting clearer guidance from central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve, regarding their monetary policy in the near and medium term.
💶 EUR/USD
As noted earlier since June, despite the bulls’ repeated efforts, EUR/USD continues to periodically return to support in the 1.1550-1.1560 range. A week ago, the pair closed at 1.1536; now it stands almost at the same level – 1.1564 – confirming the market’s indecision. On the D1 chart, the euro still finds support above its 50-day moving average, though momentum indicators point to weakening upward pressure. Next week, another upward attempt toward 1.1655 and then 1.1720-1.1730 remains possible. If this zone is confidently broken, the next targets will be 1.1795-1.1810 and 1.1900, though reaching them appears unlikely for now. Should US inflation data strengthen the dollar, a rebound from the descending resistance line near 1.1600 may trigger a new downward cycle – first toward the 5 November low at 1.1468, then to 1.1400. A drop below 1.1365 would reinforce the bearish outlook.
₿ BTC/USD
Capital inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have stabilised, while the activity of companies purchasing cryptocurrencies as reserve assets (DAT) has faded. As a result, on 8 November bitcoin traded near 102,000 dollars, having lost more than 10% since early October. For the fifth consecutive week, the leading cryptocurrency has remained pressed against the lower boundary of its three-year ascending channel. The bulls’ goal is to return BTC/USD to the central range of 116,000-117,000. To do this, the price must first break through resistances at 104,000, 107,000 and 110,000. Another test of the psychologically important 98,000-100,000 level cannot be ruled out; a successful breakout below it would open the way toward 92,200.
🛢 Brent
The weekly high for Brent crude came at 65.15, with the close at 63.53 dollars per barrel. As forecast, the 64.80-65.00 area proved to be a key level, and sellers are doing everything to prevent a breakout above it. A short-term correction toward 65.70-66.00, with an eye on 68.20-68.75, cannot be excluded. However, momentum indicators remain weak, pointing to limited upside potential. The fundamental backdrop still favours sellers. A decline below 62.0 would confirm renewed bearish pressure, targeting 60.0 and 58.0. Meanwhile, the combination of rising lows (since April) and falling highs on the chart suggests further consolidation around the 65.0 mark.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold ended the five-day period exactly where it was a week ago – at 4,001 dollars per ounce. A pullback toward 3,865-3,900 would likely attract new buyers and restore upward momentum. A fall below 3,625 would cancel the bullish scenario and open the way to 3,250-3,430. Conversely, a rebound from 4,000 and a rise above 4,150-4,165 would confirm the continuation of the rally toward 4,200 and beyond.
📈 Conclusion
The direction of markets in the coming week will depend primarily on US inflation data. Softer CPI readings may pressure the dollar and support gold, oil, and risk assets, while stronger figures are likely to strengthen the greenback and cap gains in other instruments.
Market activity will likely remain subdued early in the week due to the US Veterans Day holiday but should rise sharply after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. In Europe, investors will watch industrial production and inflation data from Germany, as well as the eurozone’s Q3 GDP report. The UK will publish labour market and GDP figures, while in Asia, focus will fall on inflation indicators in China and Japan, along with China’s trade balance data.
