Financial markets ended the week in mixed sentiment, as investors had to assess both the long-awaited end of the record-breaking 43-day US government shutdown and the growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Government operations resumed on 12 November, after which the agencies began restoring the disrupted publication schedule. As a result, US data for October on economic growth, labour market conditions and consumer activity will be released irregularly and with delays. This creates an additional challenge for the Federal Reserve, given that annual inflation remains around 3.0 percent and still exceeds the 2 percent target.
💶 EUR/USD
In our previous outlook, we noted that although the momentum indicators pointed to weakening bullish pressure, EUR/USD still had the potential to make a jump towards 1.1655. This forecast proved accurate – the pair reached this level on 13 November. After that, bullish strength faded and the pair finished Friday’s session at 1.1620. A break below support near 1.1600 may send the pair down to 1.1480 and increase the risk of a deeper decline towards the 1.1400 area. However, buyers may defend this support, which would allow another upward move to 1.1655, followed by a continuation towards 1.1720-1.1730. The next targets would be 1.1795-1.1810 and 1.1900. Whether these levels are reached will largely depend on the signals provided by the publication of the October Fed meeting minutes on 19 November, while preliminary PMI data for the eurozone should not show a sharp deterioration.
🟠 BTC/USD
bitcoin continues to fall, with Friday’s low recorded at 94,130. The reasons include lower demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve easing, and profit-taking after the record highs reached in October. The most concerning factor is that the cryptocurrency has broken below the lower boundary of a three-year upward channel, which has now turned from support into resistance. This resistance lies in the 102,000-105,000 area, where previous support, the 50-day moving average and a descending trend line of the past five weeks all converge. If bulls manage to push BTC/USD above this resistance, there may be hope for the pair’s recovery. If the decline continues, the next targets will be 92,200 and the 85,000-88,000 zone.
🛢 Brent
The fundamental picture remains mixed. As a result, Brent closed at 63.85 dollars per barrel, practically the same level as a week earlier (63.53). Along with rising lows since April and falling highs, this confirms our expectation of consolidation around 64.00-65.00. The nearest resistance is at 65.70-66.00, followed by 68.20-68.75. Support levels are 63.30, 62.00, 60.00 and 58.85.
🏆 XAU/USD
Gold posted a modest increase. After moving within the 4,040-4,245 range, it finished the week at 4,085 dollars per ounce. This marks the third week of correction after the all-time high at 4,380. The broader upward trend remains intact, supported by investors seeking protection from inflation. The pair is still trading above the key support zone at 4,000. However, if the dollar strengthens, a decline towards 3,885 cannot be ruled out. A drop below 3,625 would cancel the bullish scenario and open the way to 3,250-3,430. A rise above 4,250 would confirm a renewed bullish rally.
📊 Conclusion
The week of 17–21 November begins with markets searching for direction after the historic US government shutdown. The base scenarios for EUR/USD and XAU/USD remain moderately bullish but include the risk of corrective pullbacks. For bitcoin and Brent, the scenarios are neutral-to-bearish. On Wednesday, 19 November, traders will examine the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, where the future path of interest rates was discussed, while on Friday market attention will shift to the block of preliminary PMI business activity indices for the US, eurozone and the UK.
