The past week ended unexpectedly – late on Friday, October 10, when most markets were already asleep, Donald Trump woke everyone up. The U.S. President announced that from November 1 (or even earlier) an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports would be introduced, on top of the existing duties. He also mentioned that the United States would impose export restrictions on “all critical software,” criticised China’s policy as “hostile,” and stated that he currently saw no reason to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Markets reacted unevenly: the dollar weakened against the euro and gold, while oil, bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies plunged.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair rebounded from a low of 1.1541 to 1.1630 on Friday, finishing the week at 1.1622 and maintaining a fragile medium-term bullish structure. Buyers continue to defend the 1.1550-1.1600 area, although caution dominates amid expectations of further tariff comments from Trump. The nearest resistance is at 1.1645, followed by 1.1710-1.1755, and a breakout of this zone could send the euro towards 1.1810, with an eye on 1.2000. A drop below the 1.1525-1.1550 support area would open the way down to 1.1400 and, less likely, 1.1250.
₿ BTC/USD
Bitcoin once again updated its all-time high on Monday, October 6, reaching 126,310. It then moved into a mild correction, but after Trump’s announcement on Friday it collapsed to 103,720 dollars. The panic soon eased, and the main cryptocurrency recovered above the strong support/resistance zone around 112,000. Institutional demand and ETF inflows continue to support the upward trend. The nearest upside targets are 128,000-132,000, with a possible rise toward 137,000 if momentum persists. Support levels lie at 117,000 and 114,000, while a break below 110,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward 107,000.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude ended last week at 62.06 dollars per barrel. As we predicted in our previous review, if bears managed to keep prices below the key 64.80-65.00 support area, it would turn into resistance, opening the way to 62.50-63.00 – and that’s exactly what happened. Meanwhile, the U.S. President’s statements reinforced fears of a cooling Chinese economy, giving sellers extra strength. The main task for buyers now is to push the price above 64.80-65.00. It is still too early to talk about a rise toward 68.50–70.00, although nothing can be ruled out – the development of the tariff situation will play a key role in shaping energy demand prospects. The technical picture remains bearish, and a decline below 62.00 could extend losses to 58.00 and even 53.50.
🥇 XAU/USD (Gold)
In the previous forecast, we suggested that gold would reach the $4,000 mark per ounce in the coming days – and the prediction proved 100% correct. On October 8, gold hit 4,059 before pulling back slightly and closing at 4,010. Expectations of Fed policy easing and global uncertainty continue to support demand. A short-term correction toward 3,765-3,900 is possible, followed by renewed growth with targets at 4,200-4,465. A steady move above 4,100 will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, as investors continue to view gold as a key safe-haven asset.
📌 Conclusion
As the third week of October begins, the currency market remains under pressure from uncertainty. The EUR/USD pair maintains stability above 1.1550-1.1600, though downside risks persist if the dollar strengthens amid perceptions of a more protectionist U.S. trade stance. Gold remains near record highs and continues to attract buyers on pullbacks, bitcoin is searching for new catalysts, while Brent crude remains weighed down by weak demand and oversupply.
During the week of October 13-17, market attention will focus on macroeconomic data that could adjust expectations for global growth. On Monday, the United States will be closed for the federal holiday of Columbus Day, which may temporarily reduce liquidity. On Tuesday, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany and the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, helping assess business confidence and inflationary pressure. The end of the week will bring the publication of U.S. consumer sentiment data and China’s GDP, both of which could set the tone for global markets through the rest of October.
Throughout the week, investors will watch for potential comments from Donald Trump, who previously promised to clarify details of the new tariffs on Chinese imports. The temporary weakening of the dollar following his earlier statements was not due to a loss of confidence in the U.S. currency, but rather a reaction to rising global risks and fears of a slowdown in the world economy.
