Since hitting its historic low of 1.0350 in September 2022, the GBP/USD pair has shown a steady uptrend, reaching 1.3700 by the end of June 2025 – a four-year high. The pound’s strength is supported by a weaker US dollar, rising UK GDP and employment, as well as the Bank of England’s cautious stance, having kept the key interest rate at 4.25%.
🔹 According to XFINE, the hawkish tone within the Monetary Policy Committee and improving macroeconomic indicators provide room for further gains. XFINE’s base forecast sees the pair trading in the 1.35-1.39 range, with a potential breakout above 1.38+ if current conditions persist.
🔹 UBS and Barclays also expect the pair to move towards 1.38-1.3850, while JPMorgan maintains a more conservative view, allowing for a correction to 1.34.
🔹 FXStreet highlights upside targets at 1.3845 and 1.3920.
📉 Key support levels:
▪️ Short-term – 1.35 and 1.33
▪️ Deeper – 1.30-1.31
The market remains bullish overall, with pullbacks still seen as buying opportunities. However, elevated volatility and ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade and foreign policy make GBP/USD especially sensitive to macroeconomic data and global developments. For traders, this environment presents not only challenges but also opportunities. Ultimately, success depends not on predicting direction, but on the ability to respond quickly, manage risk, and adapt with flexible strategies.
