Since April, the EUR/USD currency pair has been trading confidently above 1.10, reaching 1.1570 at its May 2025 peak. The euro’s strength is largely due to dollar weakness caused by the Trump administration’s aggressive trade rhetoric. Tensions between the US and EU escalated after threats of 50% tariffs on European goods. Although the deadline was postponed to 9 July after a call with Ursula von der Leyen, markets continue to price in the risk of a trade war, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the euro. Another contributing factor has been rising expectations of a recession in the US and diminishing confidence in the country’s economic stability. In contrast, signs of economic revival are emerging in Germany and France, while the ECB is in no rush to ease monetary policy, making the euro relatively attractive.
Major banks and analytical agencies have revised their forecasts. HSBC, for example, raised its year-end target for EUR/USD from 1.04 to 1.15, citing declining dollar appeal and risks tied to aggressive US fiscal policy. Goldman Sachs analysts also lean towards continued euro strength, pointing to falling US bond yields and widening budget deficits. According to the bank’s economists, the pair could end the year around 1.16. Meanwhile, Citi warns of potential short-term pressure on the euro if EU equity markets decline amid tariff tensions. They estimate losses in European indices could reach 7–8%, potentially pushing the euro back down to 1.13. Against this backdrop, technical analysts, including FXStreet experts, highlight a key resistance level near 1.1430. A breakout above this level could open the way to 1.15 and higher, assuming no sharp negative news from Brussels or Washington.
Analysts at brokerage firm XFINE believe that by the end of the year, the EUR/USD pair will likely fluctuate between 1.13 and 1.17. Their base-case scenario anticipates the year ending near the upper bound of this range, provided the US fails to stabilise its external economic policy and the Fed begins cutting rates amid slowing growth. In a high-volatility environment, a trader’s key advantage becomes access to a broad array of instruments. XFINE offers more than 3,000 trading assets, including over 100 currency pairs—from majors like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY to rarer, more exotic combinations. This enables flexible adaptation to any market conditions and supports both short-term speculative strategies and more fundamental investment approaches.
Thus, EUR/USD remains under the influence of political decisions, monetary policy, and market sentiment. And while forecasts vary, the analyst consensus is shifting toward moderate euro strengthening. Traders must stay informed and react swiftly to changes, making use of modern trading solutions and the wide range of instruments available at their disposal.
